After a week of bright skies due to the full moon, astronomers can finally observe asteroid 2024 YR4 again. With darker skies, ground-based telescopes have a better chance of spotting these faint space rocks that are usually hard to detect.
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California has just updated its data on this asteroid’s potential impact with Earth. Initially, the probability of impact on December 22, 2032, was estimated at 3.1%—the highest ever recorded for an object of this size. However, after new observations on February 19, 2025, that probability has dropped to 1.5%.
More Data, More Accurate Predictions
Each night of observation helps scientists refine their predictions about the asteroid’s path. The latest data has narrowed down possible locations of 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032. For the impact probability to reach zero, Earth needs to be completely outside the asteroid’s potential trajectory.
Aside from Earth, there is also a small chance that this asteroid could hit the Moon, but the probability is much lower at just 0.8%.
NASA’s Mission to Track Asteroids
NASA is continuously developing new technology to detect potentially hazardous asteroids. One such project is the Near-Earth Object Surveyor (NEO Surveyor) mission, scheduled to launch in September 2027. Unlike regular telescopes that rely on visible light, NEO Surveyor will use infrared sensors to detect dark asteroids that emit heat from the Sun’s radiation.
Meanwhile, the James Webb Space Telescope is also set to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 in March 2025. This observation aims to measure the asteroid’s size more accurately, currently estimated between 40 to 90 meters.
No Need to Panic, But Stay Curious
Although there is still a chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth, the probability is far from certain. As more data is gathered in the coming weeks, the chances may decrease even further. This has happened before—many asteroids initially flagged as risky have later been removed from NASA’s watch list after further observations showed they posed no threat.
NASA and astronomers worldwide will continue monitoring this asteroid closely. If anything important comes up, they’ll make sure to update the public. So, stay calm, but keep looking up at the stars!
| Provisional Designation | 2024 YR4 |
| Discovery Date | 27 December 2024 (by ATLAS, Chilean station) |
| Asteroid Type | Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object |
| Size (Diameter) | Estimated between 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 ft) |
| Albedo | Estimated between 5% and 25% surface reflectivity |
| Estimated Diameter (NASA) | 55 meters (180 ft) |
| Mass | Estimated to be 2.2 × 10^8 kg (4.9 × 10^8 lb) assuming a stony composition with density of 2.6 g/cm³ |
| Rotation Period | Approximately 19.5 minutes |
| Composition | Likely an S-type asteroid (most probable), or L-type or K-type asteroid (stony composition) |
| Orbital Period | Approximately 3.99 years |
| Orbital Inclination | 3.41 degrees with respect to Earth’s orbit |
| Closest Approach to Earth (25 December 2024) | 828,800 km (515,000 miles; 2.156 lunar distances) |
| Next Close Approach | 17 December 2028 (7,970,000 ± 256,000 km from Earth) |
| Orbital Uncertainty | The uncertainty region for potential impact in 2032 is 1.1 million km (0.68 million miles) wide |
| Impact Probability (2025) | 1-in-67 (1.5%) chance of impact on 22 December 2032 |
| Torino Scale Rating (February 2025) | Level 3 (potential impact hazard) |
| Palermo Scale Rating | −0.51 (31% of the background hazard level) |
| Potential Impact Energy (Earth) | Estimated energy release: 7.8 megatonnes of TNT (32.6 PJ) |
| Potential Impact Energy (Moon) | Estimated energy release: 5.2 megatonnes of TNT (21.8 PJ) |
| Potential Impact Zone (Earth) | Risk corridor begins from the eastern Pacific Ocean, through South America, Africa, India, and ends in Bangladesh |
| Potential Impact Zone (Moon) | Possible impact area: visible side of the Moon, from Mare Crisium to Tycho crater |
| Next Observation Opportunity | Space-based observations (e.g., James Webb Space Telescope scheduled for March-May 2025) |
| Observation Challenges | Increasing distance from Earth makes observation more difficult, requiring large-aperture telescopes (≥4 meters) |
| Possible Stellar Occultation | No positive stellar occultation reported as of 11 February 2025 |