Astronomers just updated the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032, and the chances have gone up from 1.3% to 2.3%. But don’t worry—scientists are still optimistic that the risk will drop as they gather more data.
This asteroid is pretty big, about 90 meters wide—around the same size as the one that exploded over Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square kilometers of forest. But again, no need to freak out! Experts believe that once they get more accurate info on its speed and trajectory, the chances of impact will likely shrink to nearly zero.
NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) say it’s totally normal for asteroid risk levels to change as new data comes in. In the past, many asteroids that initially seemed risky ended up being harmless after more precise observations.
And even in the worst-case scenario—if this asteroid actually stays on a collision course—humanity has the tech to deal with it. NASA’s DART mission in 2022 proved we can change an asteroid’s path by crashing a spacecraft into it.
So yeah, while this might sound a little scary, scientists aren’t losing sleep over it, and neither should we. They’ll keep tracking 2024 YR4 closely in the coming months to get a clearer picture.
| Asteroid Name | 2024 YR4 |
| Discovery Date | December 27, 2024 |
| Discovered By | ATLAS telescope, Rio Hurtado, Chile |
| Estimated Size | 40–90 meters (130–300 feet) |
| Impact Probability (Jan 31, 2025) | 1.6% (previously 1.3%) |
| Closest Approach Date | December 22, 2032 |
| Torino Scale Rating | 3 (as of Jan 27, 2025) |
| Current Distance from Earth | 48 million km (30 million miles) |
| Next Close Approach | 2028 (20 times the Earth-Moon distance) |
| Risk Zone if Impact Occurs | Eastern Pacific, South America, Atlantic, Africa, Arabian Sea, South Asia |
| Velocity at Possible Impact | ~17 km/s (~38,000 mph) |
| Observation Facilities | Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Danish Telescope, Very Large Telescope |
| Observation Window | Visible until April 2025 (ground telescopes); space-based infrared telescopes may extend observation time |
| Past Observations? | Possible, archival data from 2016 is being analyzed |
| Risk Reassessment | Ongoing; probability updates based on new observations |